– What is fundamentally new with the new round of US sanctions – scope or impact? How far are secondary sanctions likely to reach given the less than warm welcome for US sanctions in parts of the EU?
– Politically and psychologically the most fundamental is Section 242 – personal sanctions against top Russian political/business figures. As for secondary sanctions European companies will be bound to take them into account, otherwise they will be automatically punished financially by losing their contracts.
– We understand apart from Russian companies and individuals, there are Ukrainian and Polish companies? How likely is that more CEE partners of Russian companies could join the list notably if they continue business as usual with Russian state companies? What will be the effect on Nord Stream – 2 and its twin the Turkish Stream? On Russian nuclear power projects as Silovye Machiny are on the list and Rosatom has projects in Hungary and Bulgaria?
– It is very likely (that more CEE companies might join the sanctions list-BA). Americans are this time furious and very determined.
The Turks may stay more loyal to Kremlin because of their fierce anti Americanism.
– The CEO of VTB Andrei Kostin warned that the latest sanction should they include cutting of Russia from the SWIFT system that would constitute an act of war and alluded that Russia could respond in military terms – would President Putin cross over red lines and raise the ante by invading other countries or expanding the conflict with Ukraine?
– It’s an empty blackmail. In case of escalation Moscow will lose much more. They understand it.
– Will sanctions have any effect on the Russian Presidential elections and what seems to concern Mr. Putin most – the turn out?
No effect, because there are no elections at all.They may affect relations between Putin and his inner circle but it has nothing to do with “elections”.