Илиян Василев

Member of the Board of the Center for Balkan and Black sea studies, Managing Partner, Innovative Energy Solutions EOOD, Blogger, Honorary Chair, Bulgarian Economic Forum Coordinator, Sofia Business School
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tok 1

Sorry, this entry is only available in Bulgarian.

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GAZ 1

  The first non-binding phase of the market test for the capacities of the floating LNG terminal in Alexandroupolis has generated unexpectedly high demand – more than 12 billion cubic meters in bids, which is more than double the FNLG’s planned capacity of 5.5 billion cubic meters. Twenty companies submitted intent to book capacity.   In the next binding phase, the digits for capacity take-up will fall significantly, yet the message from the LNG gas market could not be more unequivocal – gas traders trust they can offer competitive prices for natural gas and gain market share in Southeast and Central Europe. In other words, they are confident that gas from the global LNG market can compete with Gazprom’s pipeline gas for the cash of customers.   Another important deduced

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Pipeline

  The cuts to transit tariffs for use of the Ukrainian gas transmission network, which were announced during the final days of 2018, are a major event that was undeservedly kept out of the media spotlight.   The reductions of nearly 50% are simply a downward correction but send a message.   Here are some corners in the analysis.   The first suspected casualty would be the revenue projections for the Ukraine circumvention projects. Their business logic has been substantially compromised, while the key argument Merkel and Putin continue to use is that the Nord Stream is “just business.” The direct costs of Nord Stream-2 so far are below $10 billion and, accounting for the extra funds spent on gas fields and infrastructure development on Russian territory, the bill skyrockets

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f-16

  An indirect benefit of a possible F-16 deal for the Bulgarian Air Force is that the Kremlin’s visible agents of influence will emerge on the surface – individuals like Rumen Petkov, Parvanov, Mareshki and Siderov. Borisov’s GERB will have to, at least temporarily, subdue their pro-Russian hedge. One of the largest problems of Bulgarian democracy has been that membership in the EU and NATO did not succeed debate over, or a search for, common ground on the costs and benefits and the risks and the challenges that the budget and the people will face. To a large extent, geopolitical arguments supersede an elaborate and discrete process that often ends in troubled waters. The rare instances when trying to engage in winning hearts and minds by the reborn nomenclature, motivated

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gazprom-beh

  The issue of why the EC imposed an unprecedented fine of 77 million euros on the Bulgaria Energy Holding (BEH) and its subsidiaries, Bulgartransgaz and Bulgargaz, is quite extensive, and a single angle of analysis could hardly tell the whole story. I will focus on a more holistic approach, answering questions about matters on which the audience has been kept in the dark or misled by “experts” serving the culprits consciously/for a reward/ or through incompetence or naivete.   1. Attempts to subdue the real issue, as stated in the EC’s investigation, and direct criticism to the complainant, Overgas, are irrelevant and decry nervousness. The benefits of the EC decision will be shared by all customers and players in the gas market, not just Overgas. Following this decision of the

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Photo: president.bg

    The meeting in Katowice is only the first of many dedicated to climate change, where the world is finally sobering up to the fact that ambitions to affect the climate must fit reality, be fair and be shared.   Paris agreements remain an unattainable goal if judged on data gathered and trends in carbon emissions dynamics in recent years. The U.S., which did not ratify the Paris climate agreement, continues to reduce its emissions. The EU has also managed to reduce its carbon footprint, but efforts on both sides of the Atlantic seem to be too little to affect global parameters of carbon pollution. Ultimately, the EU and the U.S. make up 35% of global emissions, with their share falling. Their ability to lead and shape the global

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belene1

Sorry, this entry is only available in Bulgarian.

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konflikt_azov_

  We live in a world of post-truth. Everyone has his own “facts,” his own truth. After the annexation of Crimea, Russia annexed the ‘truth’ for the Russian public and proxies around the world. Adding the Crimean Peninsula meant new borders, new territorial waters and new conflicts. Closing the Kerch Strait by building the bridge connecting continental Russia with its new territory meant that large ships are disallowed, effectively imposing illegal control of traffic, blocking access to and from the Ukrainian coast of the Sea of Azov, including the towns of Mariupol and Berdyansk. The EU and U.S. are looking closely and pondering how to respond – from a safe distance, as usual. They will not interfere – except with sedative lecturing.   Chancellor Merkel cherishes Nord Stream-2 more than Ukraine as a shield of

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TurkStream1

The consequences of the choices the Bulgarian government makes on the scale and direction of the infrastructure upgrade to accommodate future flows it intends to service will be long-term. The issue at stake is whether the country will become a fully integrated member of the EU gas market, implementing key elements of the EU’s gas strategy and North-South – the Baltic to the Aegean Sea – interconnectedness, or replay the old adage of acting as proxy to Gazprom gas in the EU.   The crisis in the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait, among other alerts and triggers, echoes a repetitive soundbite in Russian foreign policy – Ukraine should not be trusted as a transit country, thereby Russia’s circumvention ‘streams’ serve the EU’s best interest. There is little doubt

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gazoprovod

    Bulgartransgaz has recently been informed by its largest customer, Gazexport, that after 2020 it will terminate the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine, and thereby, through the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline to Turkey, Greece and Macedonia. It is still unclear whether the notification qualifies under contractual terms as legal notice served, requiring a new contract for any further arrangement, or whether it should be interpreted as advance notice for a shift of delivery point, with future gas deliveries coming via the Turkish Stream-2 pipeline. As for the quantities for use in Bulgaria itself, Bulgargas would not have a major problem, provided it can add additional delivery points in Slovakia and elsewhere.   In total, the transited annual volumes over the last 12 years have varied around 16-17 billion cubic