Илиян Василев

Member of the Board of the Center for Balkan and Black sea studies, Managing Partner, Innovative Energy Solutions EOOD, Blogger, Honorary Chair, Bulgarian Economic Forum Coordinator, Sofia Business School
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Revithoussa LNG

  Last week the Bulgarian PM inspected work progress at the Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria, noting that it is a landmark project for energy security in the region. Two days later, he flew to Thessaloniki to meet the Greek PM and the US ambassador to Greece, repeating praise for Greek-Bulgarian cooperation in the energy field and commitment to buy more LNG.   DEPA, Kolmar, and the Bulgarian company Energiko have managed to import partial or fully LNG sourced gas into Bulgaria via the Greek terminal at Revithoussa. Due to outdated regulatory practice and lack of liberalization of the gas market, the margins between the “buy” and “sell” prices have been collected by the traders, including Bulgargas. Lower international prices of gas have failed to reflect into a proportionate decrease in gas prices

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malinov-putin

  The spy affair involving the top Russophile in Bulgaria – Nikolay Malinov, has received an ominous turn in the last three days. Mr. Malinov was miraculously granted a three-day exemption from the ban to leave the country, allowing him to fly to Moscow and receive a Soviet time Оrder of Friendship from President Putin. The motives are clear – for outstanding contributions to the Russian nation.   Mr. Malinov is what ideally fits into the term ‘Russian agent of influence.’   The invitation and the ceremony were all carefully staged showcase of Vladimir Putin’s imperial hiatus. In the case of Mr. Malinov, it was a clear case of marked red lines the Bulgarian PM Borissov should not cross.   The most intriguing part of the story is the five-minute

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karta S-4001

  Shortly after the October 20th visit of the head of Russia’s Civil Intelligence Sergey Naryshkin, an S-400 division and Panzer rocket-artillery system arrived in Serbia. They are supposed to take part in the second part of the joint military drills ‘Slavic shield – 2019’ that will span October 23-29th. The news generated fresh concerns about a possible permanent deployment of the S-400, leading to widespread geopolitical repercussions.   More than 200 Serbian military experts were flown to Russia two months ago to take part in the first leg of the ‘Slavic Shield-2019’ military drills in the region of Astrakhan, which included training and live-fire tests with S-400.   This summer, NATO-member Romania banned the river transport of Russian armored vehicles to Serbia. Russia then flew them over NATO member

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lng_vessel

  The effect of LNG and newly sourced gas in the Southern Gas Corridor will spread across the CEE and the SEE and put the heat on Russia’s gas monopoly. In other words, if hidden and overt preferential treatment for Gazexport is revoked, this will result in lower prices or market shares for the incumbent monopoly. Reverse supplies via the Trans-Balkan Pipeline could start as early as January 1st, 2020, bringing gas from Turkey, Greece, and the Southern Gas Corridor to clients in Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, and Slovakia even before Turk Stream gas crosses the Bulgarian border.   Demand for Nord Stream-2 south and eastbound gas exports via Opal and Eugal gas pipelines should wane with lower price differentials amid rising competition from the Southern Gas Corridor and LNG.  

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nord stream 2

  Sanctions on their own won’t stop Nord Stream-2, the market, and the EU directives can obliterate the effect sought by the Kremlin and turn what President Putin perceives as an asset into a liability.   Gas pipelines are not a threat – politicians like Putin certainly are.   The national security line in addressing the issues starts from the basics – Is Russia a threat? Perceptions matter. For many politicians in old Europe, located in offices at a safe distance from Russia, the threat notion is vague, remote, and academic. They do not discern Putin’s Russia as a threat. Perception matter. For many politics in old Europe.   For the Austrian business, born and bred in brokering deals between Russia and Eastern Europe, this is routine and legitimate “business”.

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putin

  President Putin’s address to the Valdai forum   This year the Valdai forum gained in high-level profile – foreign heads of states attended the year’s plenary session, starring President Putin’s keynote address and his answers in the Q&A follow-up. The new old message – the pivot of the world is shifting to the East, and Russia is shifting its foreign policy alongside. One could mistakenly take Putin’s words at face value and deduct Russia is less interested in Europe and the West. Suffice it to dissect this into the strategic backdrop of the new cordial entente with Macron’s France and Trump’s America.   Do not take Valdai’s communications wrong – although the speakers were invited to discuss the longer-term horizon, not an inch of what they covered contradicts or

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gazoprovod

  The Turk Stream is not only about bypassing Ukraine. It is a direct response by Gazprom to challenge the Southern Gas Corridor and natural gas from the Caspian Sea. The race to secure parallel routes, block transmission and storage capacities have been part and parcel of the strategy to protect market shares and pre-empt competitors from the gas market in South East, East and Central Europe, where Russia used to sell more than 70 billion cubic meters. The CEE market has long been considered ‘isolated’ thus doomed to be captured. Yet it remains critical for Gazprom’s revenue base as regional gas prices also include a monopoly premium. Natural gas prices for Moldova, Ukraine and Bulgaria are over $220 per thousand cubic meters, while at gas hubs in “old Europe”

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geshev-peevski11

  This is where we come to the “Russia spy scandal” which is a classic special operation, coordinated with Moscow. Its credibility rests on the fact that there is a genuine threat assessment of Russia’s hybrid war potential against Bulgaria. The State Agency for National Security (SANS) files is overflowing with information, which has been persistently and deliberately ignored. The dossiers have been piling up, ready to be used at the right moment and played in line with needs. Yet the choice made was for the relatively innocent public personage, carefully avoiding the real Russian secret agents, operating in the country.   The applied innovation is blending fact and fiction in a massive PR feat, serving both ends and killing two birds with one stone – first, striking a geopolitical

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koi1

  The shutdown of  Bulgarian National Radio’s broadcasting and the following debate are a diagnosis of the Bulgarian society. An unprecedented blow to national security, but few seem to care. We get used to all the “unthinkable” scandals and wait for the next one to die down.   Prosecutor General Tsatsarov has routinely instructed the SANS, CEM and the prosecutor’s office to find a plausible explanation in ‘three’ days, finding a minor player to take the “culprit”’s role and cover up the true perpetrators. The job is simple – omit at all cost the name of the real boss at the NURTS – National Radio and Television Stations Department – Delyan Peevski (nominally in the Vivacom group controlled by the VTB) in the newsfeed and the comments. The same applies

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Gennady Timchenko and Arkady Rotenberg

  Russia launched the Nord Streams as a political endeavor to bypass this Ukraine and forge a strategic alliance with Germany to subjugate Eastern Europe. Germany was not the only partner, Austria also joined in. Ample proof in the outspoken Russian lobby among Austrian politicians and businessmen. Germany has its Schroeder; Austria has a long list of his kins – from Straße to Schussel.   German politicians have their own business plan, calculated financial benefits at the expense of Eastern Europe. Their symbiosis with the Russian oligarchy is striking, with more evidence and proofs, as Russian oligarchs Timchenko and Rothenberg build and receive billions in inter-related project orders for gas infrastructure, connecting the Yamal gas fields to the Baltic ($ 4 billion), to the Black Sea ($ 15 billion). The