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The article first published in americanthinker.com on 03/03/2018.   Milton Friedman once said open borders and the welfare state are incompatible.  This is easy to prove in California, where, according to a recent essay by Victor Davis Hanson, half of all immigrant households are on welfare and the state accounts for a third of the nation’s welfare recipients with only 12% of its population, even as 20% of California’s population lives below the poverty line. Recent figures published in Europe’s economic powerhouse, Germany, indicate that following Angela Merkel’s disastrous open-borders experiment of two and a half years ago, that country is well on its way to joining California in proving the wisdom of Friedman’s admonition, to the huge detriment of the German people.   Official figures of the German statistical office show that beginning

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Снимка: Twitter-акаунт на Ердоган

  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is closing in on capturing the executive presidency he has long desired and codifying it in law with a new constitution. But, whether or not Erdogan emerges victorious in Turkey’s upcoming constitutional referendum, the country will still be faced with critical issues that could prolong its destabilization.   Sometime in April, Turkish voters are expected to go to the polls in a referendum calling for transforming Turkey’s government from a parliamentary system to a presidential regime. The referendum proposes eliminating the prime minister’s post and establishing an executive presidency in which the president can maintain ties to a political party.   Erdogan could remain in power until 2029 if the referendum passes. If that is the case, Turkey will likely become more autocratic and

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Immigrants boost the GDP of the countries that receive them, usually by more than the immigrants earn. Immigrants bring new customs and new perspectives, adding to cultural diversity. Immigration expands opportunities to mix and mingle. Moreover, inter-ethnic violence, like all other violence, is generally declining in the world. So why has immigration become such a polarizing issue in the EU and the U.S.?   From an elite perspective, the main problem is “sore losers”: lower-class citizens who lack the skills to compete in a globalized economy, are infected with racial and ethnic prejudice, and unfairly blame immigrants for their woes.  In Hillary Clinton’s words, their behavior makes them “deplorable” and their attitudes “irredeemable”. The only appropriate response is contempt.   However, what if the “sore losers” do lose substantially from

This entry was posted in No category, Europe and tagged , , , by Kent Osband.

About Kent Osband

Dr. Osband is an American economist, strategist, financial risk analyst and longtime student of Bulgaria. He is the author of two well-known books on quantitative risk analysis (Iceberg Risk: An Adventure in Portfolio Theory and Pandora Risk: Uncertainty at the Core of Finance) and has served both in the public (IMF, WB) and private sectors (Goldman Sachs, CSFB, Fortress Investments).
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Moroccan-Migrants-700

  With the refugee crisis threatening to unravel the European Union, some EU officials are banking on the art of the migrant deal to keep Europe’s immigration problem in check. That solution appears to be a band-aid, rather than a cure, and it is shifting the bleeding to other areas of Europe, as well as setting up the EU for blackmail.   In 2015, more than 1 million migrants entered Europe, most of whom used the Balkan route to reach western and northern European countries, particularly Germany. In March 2016, the EU reached a deal with Turkey in which Ankara agreed to take back migrants arriving at the Greek islands in exchange for Brussels relocating refugees directly from Turkey.   As the EU-Turkey deal came into place, Balkan states closed

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turcia

Sorry, this entry is only available in Bulgarian.

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xenophobia

  Xenophobia – the fear of foreigners – has always been a serious problem for humanity. In the EU today, however, it is outweighed by xeno-xenophobia – the fear of the fear of foreigners. European elites, eager to promote ever-greater union and reap more of the benefits of globalization, decry their citizens’ ambivalence on immigration. Unlike Hillary Clinton, they don’t openly describe a quarter of their populations as despicable, irredeemable haters. Yet, European elites are even more fearful of public hate boiling up and exploding. They see the ghosts of 20th century fascism and world wars.   Unfortunately, the public has cause for ambivalence. On the one hand, it revels in an unprecedented combination of peace, advanced technology, economic prosperity, and cradle-to-grave protections. On the other hand, that combination is

This entry was posted in Europe and tagged , , , , , by Kent Osband.

About Kent Osband

Dr. Osband is an American economist, strategist, financial risk analyst and longtime student of Bulgaria. He is the author of two well-known books on quantitative risk analysis (Iceberg Risk: An Adventure in Portfolio Theory and Pandora Risk: Uncertainty at the Core of Finance) and has served both in the public (IMF, WB) and private sectors (Goldman Sachs, CSFB, Fortress Investments).
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eu

  It was with great fanfare that the EU announced its Bratislava meeting last Sept. 16 as a crucial get together of its leaders to take stock of the state of the union after Brexit and the turbulent year in which more than a million migrants came to Germany alone. In previous meetings of the kind, the operational mantra had always been “ever closer union” as the panacea for all problems. Not this time. The meeting started with Angela Merkel, the real boss of the EU opining that the EU was in a “critical situation” only to be mildly contradicted a day later by Junker who said in his state of the  union speech that the EU was not disintegrating. It is possible that both of them were right, but

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Photo: instagram.com/rterdogan/

  President Erdogan has managed to scare and tie up Europe in a poker play classic – lift visas or refugees will flood your countries. This is another common feature between presidents Erdogan and Putin – they are masters in poker politics and more modest in real time economic and foreign policy achievements. It is suffice to look at the friends they have made and sustained over the years. A quick review in retrospect of the zero problems policies of Erdogan would speak volumes for the Turkish president’s diplomatic and policy skills when measured in new friends. Davutoglu’s dismissal might have signaled a change in Erdogan’s mindset – rapprochements with Russia, Israel and Iran are already making news headlines. But underneath this façade of events – there is a double

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bejanci1

  Although I receive and process lots of information, an uncharacteristically high volume for someone who should be engaged mainly with professional analysis of projects and business risks, I never cease to be surprised when people at the top start to fret publicly in the media and to justify their actions by the potential risks of international events. Some even dare to translate their own insecurities – real or staged – into innuendos to the electorate, on the one hand to lower public expectations for a quality management response, and on the other – to highlight their own indispensability.   Television studios become the arena for frequent displays of outright hysteria which in fact are a decoy for simple mediocrity. In the absence of other content, we are bombarded with