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gas to turkey 1

There is nothing kept secret that will not come to light. reads the Bible.   While in Moscow, Borisov and Putin agreed that Bulgaria should oppose the granting of extended powers to the European Commission to represent the Union in the legal and regulatory battle over the new infrastructure projects of Gazprom – Nord Stream -2 and the extension of Turkish Stream on EU territory.   The Bulgarian media overflow with superfluous analogies made to accommodate the political expediency of politicians betting on the Turkish and Nord Streams.   Germany claims to have been trying to justify engagement with Nord Stream – 2 on business grounds. The analogy goes that Sofia could join in Germany’s brokerage gas affair with Russia – a sheer fallacy, typical for politicians that defy market gravity, believing in the omnipotence of politician’s

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Source: icgb.eu

  Shortly after President Aliev inaugurated the first phase of the Southern Gas Corridor and announced the opening of the TANAP pipeline on June 12th, Russia beefed up its wartime machine to block competition to its gas supplies in Turkey, Greece and Bulgaria. The timing of the agreement between the Turkish government and Gazprom on the onshore segment of Turkish Stream matched to the day the news from Azerbaijan. Ostensibly, this a legitimate defense of Gazprom’s market shares, having already lost substantial chunks in the diversified market of Turkey and Greece – where it accounts for 50-60% of the gas imports.   When the periscope moves on to Bulgaria – the bounty is a complete and seemingly durable monopoly. Yet, even in this small market, the Russian state company has

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Smyrna-massacre-refugees-1922_1

  There are historical events that are just that, vaguely-remembered memories of events past that are of interest mostly to professional historians. And then there are momentous events that shape a nation’s consciousness for better or worse for generations to come. One such event for the Greeks is the massacre at Smyrna at the end of WWI nearly a 100 years ago. Just in time to remind us of this consequential tragedy is a new book by the German historian, Heinz A. Richter, a rare impartial look at one of the events that colors Greek national identity like few others.[1] Nor is this reminder of historical significance alone. For it is the case that Turkey’s Islamist dictator, Erdogan and the subservient to him Islamist press, ever more openly question the

This entry was posted in Europe, The Region and tagged , by Alex Alexiev.

About Alex Alexiev

Alex Alexiev is chairman of the Center for Balkan and Black Sea Studies and the editor of the geopolitical website bulgariaanalytica.org. He tweets on national security at twitter.com/alexieff and could be reached at alexievalex4@gmail.com.
Views:1641
Junker

The article first published in americanthinker.com on 09/18/2017.   Commenting on Jean-Claude Junker’s state of the European Union speech last week, the usually restrained German economic weekly, Wirtschafts Woche, said the following: “Today the chief of the European Commission gave a great speech… a speech full of great nonsense.” What prompted that staid publication to use such undiplomatic language, especially since the European Parliament gave the speech a standing ovation? Hopefully, it is the realization of more and more Europeans that the cheap EU triumphalism and prescriptions peddled by Juncker are, at best, inappropriate and, at worst, a recipe for disaster.   Of triumphalism there was plenty in the speech. “The wind is back in Europe’s sails” Junker assured the audience and told it that the EU is “in the fifth year

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greece

Greece lied its way into the euro launch in 2001, cloaking its unsound public finances from the EU’s nearly blind eye. The boost to credibility allowed Greece to borrow its way to unsustainable growth and exorbitant spending. The financial crisis of 2008 tore away the façade. In October 2009 Greece revealed a budget deficit of 12.5% of GDP, later revised to 15.7%, and warned it would default absent substantial aid or debt forgiveness   It’s been downhill ever since, thanks to the EU’s good intentions. The EU and the ECB helped Greece to bury its debt problem. Yet Greek debt didn’t die. Instead it turned zombie. It rouses periodically to terrorize the living. It has now roused again—yields on two-year Greek bonds have jumped 400 basis points in the past

This entry was posted in Europe and tagged , , , , , by Kent Osband.

About Kent Osband

Dr. Osband is an American economist, strategist, financial risk analyst and longtime student of Bulgaria. He is the author of two well-known books on quantitative risk analysis (Iceberg Risk: An Adventure in Portfolio Theory and Pandora Risk: Uncertainty at the Core of Finance) and has served both in the public (IMF, WB) and private sectors (Goldman Sachs, CSFB, Fortress Investments).
Views:4547
gaz

  The new Russian pipeline projects – Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream – are designed to kill Ukrainian gas transit. However, there also is a collateral damage – the diversion of gas flows would significantly reduce transit volumes and hurt operators’ revenues in Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria and Austria. Keeping Ukrainian transit alive is beneficial for all parties, except contractors of Gazprom.     Revenue of Slovak Eustream is already affected by higher utilization of the OPAL pipeline capacity recently permitted by the European Commission. In early January 2017, Gazprom and European operators reported record daily volumes of Russian gas delivered by Nord Stream. The flow reached 168 million cubic meters per day (mmcmd, at +20°C) compared with the average of 126 mmcmd of the first half of December[1]. Cold

This entry was posted in Europe, The Region and tagged , , , , , , , , , by Mikhail Korchemkin.

About Mikhail Korchemkin

Dr. Mikhail Korchemkin is the founder and managing director of East European Gas Analysis, a consulting company that specializes in cost-benefit and financial analysis of natural gas projects in the former Soviet Union. His previous experience includes performing numerous feasibility studies for the USSR Gas Ministry, predecessor of Gazprom. Prior to going into full-time consulting Mikhail taught at the University of Pennsylvania. He has also had visiting scholarships at Harvard University and Erasmus University in Rotterdam. Mikhail has consulted numerous corporate and governmental clients including ABN-AMRO Bank, Amoco, BP, British Gas, Chevron, Conoco, Ernst & Young, ExxonMobil, Gas Strategies, Gasunie, Neste Oy, Osaka Gas, OTA of the U.S. Congress, Ruhrgas, Shell, Statoil , Swedegas, Total, Vattenfall and The World Bank. He has acted as expert witness in arbitration cases concerning natural gas business in Russia and Eastern Europe.
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  During the Pan-Orthodox Council in Crete in June 2016, the Serbian Patriarch Irinej and the Romanian Patriarch Daniel responded negatively to only one of the proposals made by the Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, namely to condemn nationalism in the Church which Bartholomew obviously saw as a Russian strategy to undermine Orthodoxy. The idea of condemnation of nationalism proved a serious problem for several Balkan churches unable to see further than the end of their nose. The misuse of nationalist ideas by the Balkan churches is a fact well known to analysts in Moscow and since the 19thc. it has been used cleverly to provoke internal conflicts in the Balkans only to weaken the region and make it an easy prey to Russian imperialist colonial interests.   Greece’s Disappointment   Despite

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istambul-2017

  In a year that has begun with a bloody attack on Europe’s southeastern edge, the SEE region figures to again factor prominently in world events. What transpired in Southeastern Europe in 2016 and what lies ahead in 2017?   2016 was a very violent year in Turkey, where war, terror and mass arrests grabbed the headlines. In 2017, the bloodshed has already begun. More than three dozen New Year’s Eve partygoers were killed just minutes after the year began. Now, Turkish President Recep Erdogan will seek to exploit the chaos in order to transform Turkey’s system of governance and obtain the executive presidency he has long desired.   While blood spilled in Turkey, the year 2016 in the Balkans was characterized by an uneasy peace. Following the Brexit vote

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snimka1

  Is it a beautiful dream? Russia and Greece will begin building a Greek extension of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline before the year is over and complete the job in 2019. This could be true if people trusted a memorandum the energy ministers of both countries signed in June. It seemed a foolproof solution that appeared eligible for implementation under the strict antimonopoly rules of the notorious Third Energy Package, which requires cross-border infrastructure within the EU to be independent from gas suppliers. Gazprom will neither own nor operate the future pipeline.   The ministers pledged to assist a proposed 50-50 joint venture of Russian and Greek investment banks, with initial Russian financing, to prepare a feasibility study and design a ‘South European Gas Pipeline’, a Greek segment of

This entry was posted in The Region and tagged , , , , , , , , , by Mikhail Krutikhin.

About Mikhail Krutikhin

Analyst and consultant on the oil and gas industry and politics in Russia; co-founder of and analyst with the RusEnergy consultancy in Moscow; editor-in-chief of The Russian Energy weekly newsletter. He previously served as editor-in-chief for the Russian Petroleum Investor and as associate editor for the Caspian Investor monthly magazines. Between 1972 and 1992, he worked for the TASS news agency in Moscow, Cairo, Damascus, Tehran, and Beirut, rising from correspondent to chief of bureau. Krutikhin graduated from Moscow State University majoring in Iranian linguistics, but later obtained his Ph.D. in modern history.
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Photo: Wikimedia Commons

  One of the benefits to European policymakers of Brexit is that it has dominated news coverage for months, diverting attention from several indicators that the banking crisis in Europe is inexorably worsening.   When Italy announced, a few days after the Brexit vote, that it was preparing a €40 bn government recapitalisation of its banking system, Rahm Emanuel’s observation, “You never let a serious crisis go to waste” sprung to mind. Prime Minister Renzi’s proposal was notable because it contravenes the EU’s banking union rules obliging all creditors, including unguaranteed depositors, to be ‘bailed in’ before the question of public funds is supposed to arise. It is difficult to see a connection between the UK’s declaration of preference for self-government and the dramatic drops in bank share prices on