The article first published in on 01/15/2018.   President Trump’s threat to cut US assistance to Pakistan because of its duplicitous policies has elicited relatively few angry denunciations from the normally unhinged Trump haters in the foreign-policy establishment. They have been limited to accusations of endangering American soldiers in Afghanistan because of lack of logistic alternatives to Pakistan. This essentially implies that the current failed and counter-productive policies are preferable to Trump’s calls for change.   To understand why this is a recipe for continued failure in which the Pakistani people are the main victims some history is in order. Ever since its violent separation from India in 1947, Pakistan has been an army with a state attached to it. Its quarrel with India, a vastly more powerful state, became a


  In 1974, economist Arthur Laffer in making the argument for cutting taxes to top Ford Administration officials (Dick Chaney and Donald Rumsfeld) drew on a restaurant napkin a curve showing that at low rates of taxation the government could receive greater revenues, while at higher rates it received progressively less going to zero at a 100% tax rate. This then became famous as the basis of President Ronald Reagan’s tax cuts when he slashed taxes from a top marginal rate of 70% to 28%. True to the Laffer Curve, government revenues increased from $517 billion in 1980 to $909 billion in 1988, even though the population had grown by only 10%. Laffer also popularized what became known as ‘dynamic’ scoring, which took into account changes in taxpayer and business


The article first published in on 12/24/2017.   With just a few days left in 2017, President Trump has signed the tax legislation that marks his first major legislative victory since becoming president. It is undoubtedly his biggest achievement to date, but by no means the only one. After two consecutive quarters of over 3% GDP growth, the New York Fed is now predicting a fourth quarter rate of 4%. It is worth remembering here that no less an authority than the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicted economic growth of 2.2% in 2017, 2% in 2018 and 1.5% thereafter. Democratic pundits have, of course, long ridiculed as utterly impossible Trump’s election promises of 3% growth. Add to this the lowest unemployment rate (4.1%) in 17 years, 1.7 million new jobs, 12


The article first published in on 09/18/2017.   Commenting on Jean-Claude Junker’s state of the European Union speech last week, the usually restrained German economic weekly, Wirtschafts Woche, said the following: “Today the chief of the European Commission gave a great speech… a speech full of great nonsense.” What prompted that staid publication to use such undiplomatic language, especially since the European Parliament gave the speech a standing ovation? Hopefully, it is the realization of more and more Europeans that the cheap EU triumphalism and prescriptions peddled by Juncker are, at best, inappropriate and, at worst, a recipe for disaster.   Of triumphalism there was plenty in the speech. “The wind is back in Europe’s sails” Junker assured the audience and told it that the EU is “in the fifth year

Anti-racist demonstration in Seattle

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putin trump

  The month of August in Russian politics brings a special mystic connotation. Even more so for President Putin’s rule – most of the major events, crashes, disasters, and political crises happen in August.   This August begins with President Trump’s signing of upgraded sanctions, which turned the Kremlin off balance.   The Cold War between the US and Russia is now officially open on both sides, as of August 1.   The mere fact that Putin deems necessary to turn up in person on Russia’s central TV channel to clarify his policy line on the new US sanctions means only one thing – the bets are the highest possible, this is personal and there is no place left for intermediaries and interpreters.   Some time ago, the Russian MFA


  The contrast between President Donald Trump’s meetings in Warsaw and his encounter with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Hamburg could not be starker. The first was a reunion with one of America’s closest allies that supports US leadership to keep Europe secure. The second was a session with America’s primary adversary whose aims are to undercut US links with Europe and open up the continent to predominant Russian influence.   Both the US and Polish administrations stood to benefit from Trump’s visit to Poland before the President headed to Germany for the G20 Summit. For the White House, it demonstrated and clarified US commitments to the NATO alliance and to its article 5 guarantees of common defense in the event of attack.   Trump’s speech in Warsaw and his meeting with several Central

This entry was posted in The Region and tagged , , , , , by Janusz Bugajski.

About Janusz Bugajski

Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in Washington DC and author of 20 books on Europe, Russia, and trans-Atlantic relations. His newest book is co-authored with Margarita Assenova and entitled Eurasian Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks (Washington DC: Jamestown Foundation, 2016)
hamburg 2017

The article first published in on 07/14/2017.   The Hamburg G-20 is over and the fascist thugs who provided its violent backdrop can now take a well-deserved rest. Not so their numerous sympathizers on the Left who must spin the post-confab narrative in the proper direction.   Two such narratives have emerged to date: That President Trump and America are no longer relevant, and the Paris Accord is irreversible. The former is the purview of Trump-haters in the media who nine months ago signed up for wishful thinking as their preferred reality and will never abandon it. The latter is the domain of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her elite cohorts whose entire world threatens to collapse if global warming is not there to prop it up. The reason for that is simple. The European


The article first published in on 07/06/2017.   Next week’s G-20 meeting in Hamburg promises to be more interesting than usual. The expected unhinged leftist crowds are already much in evidence and could be counted on for a dose of violence and turmoil. More seriously, this time the fireworks are more likely to come from inside the conference rooms than outside. In preparation for the event, the German chancellor Angela Merkel has already accused Trump of “Abshottung” (door closure or foreclosure) and promised to challenge him directly on a number of issues. Whether she already feels like the leader of the free world (as many pundits are trying to convince her that she actually is), or not is unclear, but she obviously has Trump in mind when she argues that “abshottung” from “climate


  Two events overshadowed the geopolitical landscape on the eve of President Trump’s visit to Poland to attend the Three Seas Initiative Summit. The TSIS is a joint Polish-Croatian project, launched in 2016, with the aim of strengthening trade, infrastructure, energy and political cooperation among countries bordering the Adriatic, the Baltic and the Black seas. Twelve countries are members: Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Croatia, Slovenia and Austria.   The fact that the American President will preach the case to CEE leaders for US LNG imports comes as no surprise, yet there is a hidden context and a more complex backdrop against which both the expectations and the deliverables of the visit should be judged.   The Case for US LNG gas   Washington has