For the past several months now, the US media is obsessed with dire predictions of a calamitous trade war between China and the US, following numerous statements by  president Trump that the Chinese trade surplus is intolerable. Indeed, at $506 billion of Chinese exports against only $130 billion of US ones, it does look very unfair. However, things look a bit different if looked at from a different angle. The Chinese value added, for instance is only 45%, which means that 55% is first imported there to be assembled and re-exported. The US value added is 92%, India’s 87%. Secondly, German trade surplus with the US is not far behind China’s and, unlike China, which fills the aisles at Walmart with cheap goods, Germany produces and sells large numbers


  Ralf Waldo Emerson once said, that the money often cost too much. He is an American writer, who dedicated his life to the fight for individual freedom – something that, from today’s perspective, is considered a typical trait of American capitalism and a basic human right. Of course, living in the 18th century, the author had no concept of central banks and their policies, which reached new heights after the last global crisis and demonstrated to us that, when the central bank decides, money can cost too little.   After 2008 US government started stimulating the economy and the banking sector in particular, by using various monetary tools. The officials introduced so called Quantitative easing (QE) programs and many tax breaks for individuals and business organizations, while the base


  The recent sale of a significant minority equity stake in Rosneft caught the markets and analysts by surprise. The available information to date is limited only to a couple of announcements revealing few details.  The deal is indeed of great complexity and the available details are not sufficient to decipher it. An initial analysis however leaves the impression that the announced buying consortium of Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund and Glencore might be not the only beneficial owner of the privatized 19.5% stake in Rosneft.   On December 5, Rosneft issued 600 billion Rubles locally placed bonds maturing in 10 years. The Russian market is clearly not deep enough for an issue of that magnitude and such a long tenor.  Most probably, the money ultimately came from the Russian central

This entry was posted in The Region and tagged , , , , , by A. Sorensen Henrik.

About A. Sorensen Henrik

Henrik A. Sorensen is a natural resources economist with more than four decades of professional experience. Mr. Sorensen has a BSc in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Gothenburg and MBA from McCombs School. In the first part of his career he has specialized in project finance of oil production, infrastructure, and downstream operations in the US, South-east Asia, Latin America, and later, the former Soviet Union. Since 2007 Mr. Sorensen specializes predominantly in research related to economics of natural resources.

(“Let the consuls see to it that the state suffers no harm”) These are the first words from the phrase with which the Roman senate gave the consuls dictatorial power at critical moments for the country.   As of 4th December Italy will need its consuls once again, as the country is about to enter into a political crisis, at a time when there is desperate need to have a government in place.   Italy is a democratic parliamentary republic with a multi-party system under the Constitution, in force since January 1st, 1948.   The main legislative body in Italy is a bi-cameral parliament with some limited legislative powers also held by the Council of Ministers. Every law must obtain the approval of both chambers – the Chamber of Deputies, comprised of 630

This entry was posted in Europe and tagged , , , , , , by Pavel Bandilov.

About Pavel Bandilov

Pavel Bandilov is a financial analyst with more than 15 years of capital markets experience. He has worked for leading investment intermediaries in Bulgaria. Author of “Borsite” blog and market commentator in tv program, “The Day with Veselin Dremdjiev”. Currently, he is a part of the team of “Sofia International Securities”, an investment intermediary with focus on asset management and international markets.
Photo: Wikimedia Commons/ Markus Bernet

  Deutsche Bank, which is Europe’s largest investment bank, and one of the largest of the world, has attracted a lot of attention from regulators, analysts and media lately. News have not been good. In June the Fed announced the firm’s U.S. operation failed — twice in a row — the Fed’s stress test. An IMF research report awarded it the title of “the biggest contributor of systemic risk”. Impact of Brexit was predicted to take a material toll on its investment bank, headquartered in London.  As a result, Deutsche’s stock has been in a tear, with the market capitalization falling below EUR18bn, a quarter of its book value. Since early 2016 its credit default swaps (a measure of its credit risk) has sharply grown and has been trading in