Views:2539
piontkovskij

    – What is fundamentally new with the new round of US sanctions – scope or impact? How far are secondary sanctions likely to reach given the less than warm welcome for US sanctions in parts of the EU? – Politically and psychologically the most fundamental is Section 242 – personal sanctions against top Russian political/business figures. As for secondary sanctions European companies will be bound to take them into account, otherwise they will be automatically punished financially by losing their contracts.   – We understand apart from Russian companies and individuals, there are Ukrainian and Polish companies? How likely is that more CEE partners of Russian companies could join the list notably if they continue business as usual with Russian state companies?  What will be the effect on Nord

Views:1344
Фото: dyvys.info

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Views:3382
putin-gotce1

  The System Spill over   By proximity, Bulgaria mirrors Russian autocratic tendencies, including mimicking the state oligarchy model. Unlike Russia, however, the Bulgarian version can’t be sustained on “natural” resources – oil, gas, nuclear fuel-based wealth. Redistribution can be effectuated on added value and GDP growth, or thereafter on the budget accumulated taxed economic output. Bulgaria’s autocracy has limited margins for self-propelled growth and wealth sharing, which implies greater reliance on grand corruption mechanisms.   The Kremlin’s GDP sustains its dynamics even on holidays as the oil and gas industry turns round the clock. Bulgarian GDP, however, must be generated and incomes earned.   In Russia, the population exhibits extreme patience, willing to accept sacrifice in the name of “stability” (note the overlay in the jargon of the ruling

Views:1469
rubla

  On September 22, 2017, Sberbank CEO, Herman Gref, announced the state-owned Russian bank plans to withdraw from several European countries. The reason given was pressure from sanctions. According to Gref, “…it is extremely challenging to work under sanctions in Europe.” Under existing European sanctions passed in 2014, Sberbank is barred from raising debt of more than 30 days’ maturity in Europe. The US recently tightened this limit from 30 to 14 days, in response to Russia’s illegal involvement in last year’s presidential election. Mr. Gref did not reveal which countries Sberbank plans to leave or what it plans for its offices there. However, it looks like the “exodus” has already started: in 2017, Sberbank has sold it banking institution in Slovenia and is trying to sell two Ukrainian subsidiaries

Views:3192
putin-trump

  Despite all the might of the US Congress and its ability to block Trump’s move on Russia, the legislative branch still has no executive powers – it can hardly initiate or implement any proactive or preventive policy to secure America’s and the West’s perimeter for independent policies against Russia. The White House is overcommitted to reassuring Trump’s survival in the Russia-gate affair and the investigation kernel is still ahead. The focus on shielding individual members of the Trump family during the investigation, as well as the chaotic cadres’ changes in the White House, are not exactly a mark of the US president’s strength, capacity to lead and change the world.   Putin can further speculate on the disagreements in transatlantic relations, which does not imply immediate enthusiasm and capacity

Views:4444
putin trump

  The month of August in Russian politics brings a special mystic connotation. Even more so for President Putin’s rule – most of the major events, crashes, disasters, and political crises happen in August.   This August begins with President Trump’s signing of upgraded sanctions, which turned the Kremlin off balance.   The Cold War between the US and Russia is now officially open on both sides, as of August 1.   The mere fact that Putin deems necessary to turn up in person on Russia’s central TV channel to clarify his policy line on the new US sanctions means only one thing – the bets are the highest possible, this is personal and there is no place left for intermediaries and interpreters.   Some time ago, the Russian MFA

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Russia flag.

  Bulgariaanalytica.org has written twice before (Alex Alexiev and Enders Wimbush, Russia in Decline) about this study and is  returning to the subject again now that the results of the study have been published in a book, which may well be the most important book on Russia since Vladimir Putin came to power in 1999.[1]   The book is the result of a collective effort by eighteen prominent American and Russian political analysts and economists assembled by the Jamestown Foundation for the purpose of assessing the state of Russia in 2016, the 17th year of the Putin’s de facto leadership era in Russia. The verdict of the experts is essentially unanimous, Russia today is in a state of “a serious and sustained decline.” What that decline augurs for the future

Views:5532
Gazprom

  No wonder German, French and British energy companies grumbled upon the release of the new version of S.722  – the legislation expanding US sanctions on Iran and Russia. In part for a good reason – there were nuances, which the US Senators failed to address in the original version.   As Russian and Iranian companies hold shares in Shah Deniz – 2 (NIOC and Lukoil own 10 per cent shares) a verbatim application of the provisions of the US sanctions act would have essentially blocked the Shah Deniz project and the whole Southern Gas Corridor.   In the new draft, the sanctions apply only to companies and projects where Russian companies hold at least a 33% stake.   This change was expected as many governments, companies and the EC

Views:1958
russia

  The future of economic sanctions against Russia for its ongoing attack on Ukraine has become a litmus test for the foreign policy effectiveness of President Donald Trump. Lifting sanctions without any tangible benefits to US and Allied security would make it more likely that Washington becomes embroiled in a future confrontation with Moscow Putin is bound to interpret such a move as weakness and may miscalculate the US stance in his next foreign adventure.   The new US administration has yet to be tested internationally. Cancelling free trade agreements and talking tough with foreign leaders is the relatively easy part. Responding to armed conflict, including a potential Russian attack on an independent neighboring state, will demonstrate the intentions and capabilities of the White House.   The easing of any

Views:11927
Фото: dyvys.info

Counter to common perceptions that Bulgaria is a net loser from Russia’s counter-sanctions, the overall effect is mixed and possibly has a net positive end value.   Bulgarian exports to Russia have never recovered after their dramatic fall in the mid 90’s and early 00’s, with peak levels being registered in 2013 – almost $ 700 million. Although it is true that after the sanctions were announced in August 2013, there has been a sharp dip in the value of Bulgarian exports to Russia, in order to understand the causal relationship, more factors need to be accommodated.   During the years of transition, the Bulgarian-Russian trade has been extremely difficult to grasp as trends and drivers of a substantial chunk of it have gone through third countries. This has been