Views:2779
transbalkan1

  Let us state the publicly known facts and try to assess the business merits of the deal. Bit by bit, slowly and systematically, so that even non-experts can understand.   We have a standing valid gas transit contract between Gazexport and Bulgartransgaz, using the current Trans-Balkan Pipeline, until 2030 with “secure” revenues of $ 1.2 billion. This is not the total contract amount, just the ‘ship or pay’ segment, accrued until the end of the contract. This is regardless of whether Gazprom decides to end transit through Ukraine, to take up alternative routes through Turkey, Germany or the North Pole. Cash in hand. Or almost.   Giving up on these receivables is a condition sine qua non, set by Gazprom, if we want to enter into the new venture

Views:22012
Source: icgb.eu

  Shortly after President Aliev inaugurated the first phase of the Southern Gas Corridor and announced the opening of the TANAP pipeline on June 12th, Russia beefed up its wartime machine to block competition to its gas supplies in Turkey, Greece and Bulgaria. The timing of the agreement between the Turkish government and Gazprom on the onshore segment of Turkish Stream matched to the day the news from Azerbaijan. Ostensibly, this a legitimate defense of Gazprom’s market shares, having already lost substantial chunks in the diversified market of Turkey and Greece – where it accounts for 50-60% of the gas imports.   When the periscope moves on to Bulgaria – the bounty is a complete and seemingly durable monopoly. Yet, even in this small market, the Russian state company has

Views:6582
gaz

  The new Russian pipeline projects – Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream – are designed to kill Ukrainian gas transit. However, there also is a collateral damage – the diversion of gas flows would significantly reduce transit volumes and hurt operators’ revenues in Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria and Austria. Keeping Ukrainian transit alive is beneficial for all parties, except contractors of Gazprom.     Revenue of Slovak Eustream is already affected by higher utilization of the OPAL pipeline capacity recently permitted by the European Commission. In early January 2017, Gazprom and European operators reported record daily volumes of Russian gas delivered by Nord Stream. The flow reached 168 million cubic meters per day (mmcmd, at +20°C) compared with the average of 126 mmcmd of the first half of December[1]. Cold

This entry was posted in Europe, The Region and tagged , , , , , , , , , by Mikhail Korchemkin.

About Mikhail Korchemkin

Dr. Mikhail Korchemkin is the founder and managing director of East European Gas Analysis, a consulting company that specializes in cost-benefit and financial analysis of natural gas projects in the former Soviet Union. His previous experience includes performing numerous feasibility studies for the USSR Gas Ministry, predecessor of Gazprom. Prior to going into full-time consulting Mikhail taught at the University of Pennsylvania. He has also had visiting scholarships at Harvard University and Erasmus University in Rotterdam. Mikhail has consulted numerous corporate and governmental clients including ABN-AMRO Bank, Amoco, BP, British Gas, Chevron, Conoco, Ernst & Young, ExxonMobil, Gas Strategies, Gasunie, Neste Oy, Osaka Gas, OTA of the U.S. Congress, Ruhrgas, Shell, Statoil , Swedegas, Total, Vattenfall and The World Bank. He has acted as expert witness in arbitration cases concerning natural gas business in Russia and Eastern Europe.
Views:7128
Pipeline

  The diversification of gas routes and supplies in South East Europe has long been considered a mission impossible. Gazprom as the undisputed market maker successfully diffused all EU and US backed attempts to bring competition in routes and supplies to the region. Russia’s most visible success story was the demise of the Nabucco project. Alternative gas supplies to the CEE gas market from the SEE and vice versa, including Ukraine, were off the cards. Until this year.   Slowly unfolding events over the past several years ultimately brought a game change with the removal of critical barriers to the full integration of the gas systems of Greece, Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine. Within a matter of few weeks in June and July the respective TSOs signed intersystem agreements, clearing the