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erdogan-capitan

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syria

  Anyone who has been following the events in Syria and the region over recent years would not deny that the stalemate in the northern regions of the country is not unexpected. After more than a year of negotiations – most of them without much effect or emotion – the United States and Turkey continue to fail to resolve their differences with regard to the establishment of the so-called “buffer zone” along the Turkish-Syrian border. President Recep Erdogan has repeatedly stressed that his country intends to intervene in northern and north-eastern Syria to secure its territory from possible penetration by PKK forces, currently part of the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Washington-backed coalition. The latest threats for an offensive came just as Ambassador James Jeffrey was visiting Ankara to hold talks

This entry was posted in The Region and tagged , , , , , , by Ruslan Trad.

About Ruslan Trad

Ruslan Trad is an analyst, author and freelance journalist, focusing on the Middle East and North Africa. He was a lecturer at the Sofia University, the New Bulgaria University, the Diplomatic Institute of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and NATO. He has published reports from Lebanon, Southeast Turkey, Tunisia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Thailand. In 2014 he made a documentary in Iraqi Kurdistan on the front lines of the war with Islamic State. In 2016 he shot a film in Tunisia about the political crisis in the country and the war in Libya. In 2017 his book "The killing of a revolution" about the war in Syria was published. He is the co-founder of De Re Militari, a journal about military conflicts. His works have been published in Bulgaria and abroad. In late 2019 he will publish his second book on Russian mercenaries, co-authored with Kiril Avramov.
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bvp

  The US and EU sanctions   Both the EU and the US are contemplating new sanctions following the Cyprus-drilling conflict and the purchase of the S-400. Erdogan seems defiant on both counts and further sanctions seem equally unavoidable.   Turkey’s armed forces have been planning a major offensive in Northern Syria against the US-backed Kurdish Protection Units (YPG), in defiance of US and EU warnings for possible conflict escalation. A sense of urgency has been added to Erdogan’s preparatory works to invade Syria as Britain, France, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E have responded positively to US calls to send troops to areas held by the YPG.   Russia is tacitly encouraging further cracks in relations with the West by allowing Erdogan a certain range of freedom in Syria, against the

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Снимка: tccb.gov.tr

The backstage role of Schroeder.   President Erdogan seems intent to further expand the impact zone of the S-400 deal – testing the tolerance of his partners in NATO and the EU. Both are contemplating sanctions which seem too lenient to bite yet indicate a path that has no worst-case scenario beyond the realm of the possibility. Volkswagen’s investments in Turkey, with the heavy lobbying of the key Kremlin asset ex-Chancellor Schroeder, inevitably will face huge and potentially escalating tough-to-mitigate political risks.   No immediate collapse foreseen – slowly evolving strategic shift   To start with – the nature and the timeline of the risk evolve in time. Although no immediate collapse in Turkey is foreseen as part of Erdogan’s departure from Kemal Ataturk’s European and part of the West identity, the

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Ekrem Imamoglu campaign signs in Istanbul_1

  Istanbul voters dealt Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a tremendous blow last Sunday when they resoundingly rejected the country’s former prime minister and close Erdogan ally, Binali Yildirim, in his bid to become mayor of Istanbul and maintain the quarter-century grip on Turkey’s largest city that Erdogan and his allies had held.   New Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu defeated Yildirm 54 percent to 45 percent in the re-run of a vote in March that Imamoglu narrowly won. The loss amounted to Erdogan’s first major electoral defeat of his political career and a serious blow to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which Erdogan co-founded. The Turkish president and his allies had controlled Istanbul since Erdogan was elected mayor of the Turkish metropolis 25 years ago.   A variety of

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Хотел Fairmont Le Montreux Palace, място за срещата на Билдерберг през 2019 г. и подписване на Конвенцията от Монтрьо през 1936 г.

  Western elites are struggling to find common ground between the United States and Europe on matters related to China and trade, yet they have a broad consensus on a pressing defense issue — Turkey’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile system is damaging to NATO, and if completed, sanctions against Ankara are imminent — according to a surprise Turkish-language BBC report detailing discussions that took place last week at the secretive Bilderberg conference.   Another key takeaway from the Bilderberg group’s conference held last weekend in Montreux, Switzerland is that elites are concerned about what another financial crisis would do to the vulnerable European Union. Western elites see economic growth as a useful tool in their battle against populism and nationalism, but in the case that the European economy were

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The_ruined_gateway_of_Prince_Eugene,_Belgrade

A while ago the Grand Imam of Al-Azhar, Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb, opined publicly that Muslims were completely innocent of the sins of colonialism and gave the example of Al-Andalus, (Andalusia) as an example of the allegedly peaceful and equitable coexistence of the three great religions – Christianity, Judaism and Islam, under Muslim domination. This is, of course, a long standing Muslim propaganda belied by the simple historical fact that both Christians and Jews in Spain under Muslim rule had to pay the infidel tax jizya as a mandatory indication of their subservient status.   For people in the Balkans, it is not necessary to go all the way to Spain to find out that Al-Tayeb’s insinuations are nothing but a bold-faced lie. We have the well-documented and centuries-old experience of

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Pipeline

  The cuts to transit tariffs for use of the Ukrainian gas transmission network, which were announced during the final days of 2018, are a major event that was undeservedly kept out of the media spotlight.   The reductions of nearly 50% are simply a downward correction but send a message.   Here are some corners in the analysis.   The first suspected casualty would be the revenue projections for the Ukraine circumvention projects. Their business logic has been substantially compromised, while the key argument Merkel and Putin continue to use is that the Nord Stream is “just business.” The direct costs of Nord Stream-2 so far are below $10 billion and, accounting for the extra funds spent on gas fields and infrastructure development on Russian territory, the bill skyrockets

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Mediterranean gas

  Growing energy rivalry in the region – a catalyst for development or geopolitical crisis?     The first gas exploration of American oil leader -Exxon Mobil in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of Cyprus, officially announced on Friday (November 16th), has also set a new stage in the energy and political development of the Eastern Mediterranean region. Although far from real results – finding /or not/ of hydrocarbon deposits, the launch of the American company has already managed to restore the usual “hot spot” status of  the region, putting an end to the short quiet interval, when in February Turkish warships forced the platform of the Italian company Eni to leave the offshore zone of Cyprus.   Exxon Mobil explorations have already changed the dynamics of the geopolitical scene

This entry was posted in No category, Europe, The Region and tagged , , , , , by Branislava Bobanats.

About Branislava Bobanats

Branislava Bobanats is a longtime journalist, she has worked in the newspapers People's Youth (Narodna mladej), Standard, 168 hours, Banker. She is living and working in Cyprus already for 8 years, being a correspondent of the Bulgarian National Radio on the island. She writes about Cyprus's problems for a number of media in Bulgaria, including Economics journal, Investor.bg, 3e-news, Bloomberg TV Bulgaria, Capital, Dnevnik. She is a member of the Union of Bulgarian Journalists.
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The_ruined_gateway_of_Prince_Eugene,_Belgrade

  As Turkey slides closer and closer to the economic precipice, it is worth remembering Erdogan’s promises of resurrecting the Ottoman Empire as the ultimate goal of his rule. By 2023, the hundredth year anniversary of the establishment of the Turkish Republic by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, Turkey, Erdogan claimed, would have recaptured the economic power and world-wide reach of the Ottoman Empire in its glory days. Needless to say, this has never been anything but a baseless phantasy, but half of the Turks and many other Muslims believed it to the extent of following Erdogan blindly. It is worth, therefore, revisiting the history of the empire to find out that for most of its existence the Ottoman Empire was a historical anachronism with such glaring systemic weaknesses that it only