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putin zelenskiy1

    So far so good for Volodymyr Zelensky as actual, rather than fictional, president of Ukraine. Or so it seems.   Earlier this month, weeks after securing an unprecedented parliamentary majority to back his presidential mandate, Zelensky stood on the tarmac of Kyiv’s Boryspil Airport greeting freed prisoners returning home from Russia.   It was a dramatic scene with Zelensky playing a key supporting, if not starring, role. In addition to getting back film director Oleh Sentsov, who had become a renowned political prisoner, the Ukrainian sailors who were captured by Russian forces in the Kerch Strait also returned home. This made for a joyous occasion in Kyiv.   Zelensky’s approval rating is sky high, with a recent poll putting it above 70 percent. The prisoner swap certainly doesn’t

Views:1724
Gennady Timchenko and Arkady Rotenberg

  Russia launched the Nord Streams as a political endeavor to bypass this Ukraine and forge a strategic alliance with Germany to subjugate Eastern Europe. Germany was not the only partner, Austria also joined in. Ample proof in the outspoken Russian lobby among Austrian politicians and businessmen. Germany has its Schroeder; Austria has a long list of his kins – from Straße to Schussel.   German politicians have their own business plan, calculated financial benefits at the expense of Eastern Europe. Their symbiosis with the Russian oligarchy is striking, with more evidence and proofs, as Russian oligarchs Timchenko and Rothenberg build and receive billions in inter-related project orders for gas infrastructure, connecting the Yamal gas fields to the Baltic ($ 4 billion), to the Black Sea ($ 15 billion). The

Views:5007
Ukraine-Russia-Pipelines1

  Loss of Ukrainian gas transit does increase the risk of military conflict.     In October 2013, I came across an anonymous blogger’s note about Russia forming a separate air assault brigade to stop shale gas development in Eastern Ukraine [1]. It was several months before the Ukrainian revolution of 2014 [2], and I dismissed the news as fake. However, after the start of combat activities in the Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, the note made a lot of sense.   Coincidentally or not, the gas supply system of Gazprom was ready for the war in Ukraine.  For many years Rostov-on-Don and two more provinces of Southern Russia were receiving gas through Eastern Ukraine. In 2007, Gazprom commissioned a bypassing pipeline enabling “to directly supply gas to Russian

This entry was posted in Bulgaria, Europe, The Region and tagged , , , , , , by Mikhail Korchemkin.

About Mikhail Korchemkin

Dr. Mikhail Korchemkin is the founder and managing director of East European Gas Analysis, a consulting company that specializes in cost-benefit and financial analysis of natural gas projects in the former Soviet Union. His previous experience includes performing numerous feasibility studies for the USSR Gas Ministry, predecessor of Gazprom. Prior to going into full-time consulting Mikhail taught at the University of Pennsylvania. He has also had visiting scholarships at Harvard University and Erasmus University in Rotterdam. Mikhail has consulted numerous corporate and governmental clients including ABN-AMRO Bank, Amoco, BP, British Gas, Chevron, Conoco, Ernst & Young, ExxonMobil, Gas Strategies, Gasunie, Neste Oy, Osaka Gas, OTA of the U.S. Congress, Ruhrgas, Shell, Statoil , Swedegas, Total, Vattenfall and The World Bank. He has acted as expert witness in arbitration cases concerning natural gas business in Russia and Eastern Europe.
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russia

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Views:5441
GAZ 1

  Once Russian gas is dried out in the Ukrainian gas transportation system the country is in trouble. Bulgaria and Poland may come to help, rather than Germany and Brussels.     No one is guilty that on December 31, 2019 the current transit contract between Naftogaz of Ukraine and Gazprom of Russia ends. As the same time two highly controversial bypassing projects will soon become operational – North Stream-2 and Turkish Stream. That will end an era of the decades long Ukrainian gas transportation business of approximately 90 bcm per year from Russia to Europe and Turkey. Taking into account the hurdles the notorious North Stream-2 is facing the physical transit may not end completely but commencing on January 1, 2020 there will be no more long-term commitments on

This entry was posted in Bulgaria, Europe, The Region and tagged , , , , by Sergiy Korsunsky.

About Sergiy Korsunsky

Director of the Hennadii Udovenko Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine since October 2017. Dr. Sergiy Korsunsky served as Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to the Republic of Turkey in 2008-2016. Prior to that for three years he served as Director-General of the Economic Department, Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Minister-Counselor and Acting Ambassador at the Embassy of Ukraine in the USA fin 2000-2005. Ambassador Korsunsky has extensive professional experience in strategic planning and development, including energy, trade and investment policy, regional security. He is a well known expert on geopolitics of energy. Dr. Korsunsky authored more than 200 publications, including 10 books. In 2008 he was awarded by the President of Ukraine for his economic achievements.
Views:5833
Nahum-Byagstvo

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poroshenko zelenskii2

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Views:11152
gaz

  For the first time in more than 15 years, Ukrainian gas has been exported to the EU. On January 30 this year, a small private company, TAS Energia Krainy, managed to sell gas to Slovakia. Volumes are indicative of a test mode, but the fact of the transfer is of great importance.   First, the story is clear proof that Ukraine has successfully resolved domestic gas challenges, due to growth in indigenous gas production and diversified imports, enough to ensure a strong liquidity base for market liberalization and export potential.   Second, the transaction happened in high winter season, which suggests self-confidence and mature levels in capacity and the supply market. The cross-border sale is not referenced to the more common long-term, but to short trade that can track

Views:12874
Pipeline

  The cuts to transit tariffs for use of the Ukrainian gas transmission network, which were announced during the final days of 2018, are a major event that was undeservedly kept out of the media spotlight.   The reductions of nearly 50% are simply a downward correction but send a message.   Here are some corners in the analysis.   The first suspected casualty would be the revenue projections for the Ukraine circumvention projects. Their business logic has been substantially compromised, while the key argument Merkel and Putin continue to use is that the Nord Stream is “just business.” The direct costs of Nord Stream-2 so far are below $10 billion and, accounting for the extra funds spent on gas fields and infrastructure development on Russian territory, the bill skyrockets