Views:1221
Flag_of_North_Korea.svg_

  Since I last wrote a few weeks ago, North Korea has lost one showdown with the U.S. and has geared up for a second. The first showdown was a threat to ring tiny Guam with a military barrage. The second showdown is the threat of intercontinental ballistic missiles ICBM armed with hydrogen (fusion) bombs. Why the first threat? Because Guam is a U.S. protectorate with a major U.S. military base, and sufficiently off the beaten path to make good long-distance target practice. When the U.S. rattled sabers in return, a worried China publicly punched a hole in the security umbrella it provides North Korea. The Global Times, long viewed as its semiofficial mouthpiece, said that China would not defend North Korea from U.S. retaliation if North Korea struck first

This entry was posted in No category, The Region and tagged by Kent Osband.

About Kent Osband

Dr. Osband is an American economist, strategist, financial risk analyst and longtime student of Bulgaria. He is the author of two well-known books on quantitative risk analysis (Iceberg Risk: An Adventure in Portfolio Theory and Pandora Risk: Uncertainty at the Core of Finance) and has served both in the public (IMF, WB) and private sectors (Goldman Sachs, CSFB, Fortress Investments).
Views:2617
DPRK-ICBM_1

  Read the original analysis of Michael Elleman on the IISS website, where he gives convincing arguments behind the conclusion that the quantum leap in North Korea’s missile range could have only one explanation – it “has acquired a high-performance liquid-propellant engine (LPE) from illicit networks in Russia and Ukraine”. In that order – Russia and then Ukraine.   Almost 70 percent of the text is dedicated to the history of Soviet and ongoing Russian backdoor support for different North Korean dictators’ ambitions to develop weapons capable of threatening not only South Korea, but also US military assets in the area, Japan and ultimately North America.   Then read the article in the NYT, titled “North Korea’s Missile Success is linked to Ukrainian plant, investigators say”, which strangely ignores the

Views:1104
Flag_of_North_Korea.svg_

  North Korea is a country of 25 million people held hostage by its warlord ruler. Its real GDP per capita is estimated at less than 10% of Bulgaria’s and less than 5% of South Korea’s.  Its main export is fear, sustained by long credible threats of devastating Seoul just south of the border and increasingly credible threats of wreaking nuclear havoc on Japan or the U.S. Its main Achilles’ heel is dependence on foreign oil, which China supplies in part to protect an ally on its border and in part because the enemy of its enemies is its friend. Its main protection is its long-screamed eagerness to take others down in flames with it.   Ideally, South Korea and North Korea should reunite the way West Germany and East

This entry was posted in The Region and tagged , , by Kent Osband.

About Kent Osband

Dr. Osband is an American economist, strategist, financial risk analyst and longtime student of Bulgaria. He is the author of two well-known books on quantitative risk analysis (Iceberg Risk: An Adventure in Portfolio Theory and Pandora Risk: Uncertainty at the Core of Finance) and has served both in the public (IMF, WB) and private sectors (Goldman Sachs, CSFB, Fortress Investments).